We just got back from the ESPN Zone where we had lunch with (well sort of) our local ESPN radio talk show hosts – Mark Viviano and the Bulldog.  I have referenced them in previous postings and their picture is in my Baseball Photo album.

Actually, they sit in a glass enclosed booth, and the rest of us sit out in the restaurant, but they were gracious enough to invite us in for a short chat.  The bad news was that they didn’t have any tee-shirts today.  Oh well, maybe I can get a new one when I see them again on Opening Day.

To each and every one of you – Happy New Year, and may all of your wishes and dreams come true – unless of course they involve your favorite team beating the Orioles.

The other day, I was sitting in a waiting room reading Jessica Simpson’s Divorce Diary in a magazine when the receptionist asked “Are you an Orioles fan?”

For a second I thought “Why is she asking me that question?”  Then, in a flash of inspiration, I thought “Maybe it’s because I’m wearing an Orioles jacket.”  We went on to talk about the Os for a few minutes until the phone rang and she went back to work.

This conversation, some e-mails, a few blogs, a dozen print articles, and hours of TV coverage of the Johnny Damon move made me think “Is there some point when it is no longer “Your Team”?

Sometimes it’s easy.  When the Mayflower moving vans left Baltimore in the middle of the night headed for Indianapolis, the Colts were no longer “Our Team.”

Most of the time, it isn’t that clearcut.  Somehow, a team can change owners, change players, change managers, change coaches, change stadiums, change uniforms and logos, and even change cities (as long as it isn’t too far away and you can pretend that Pontiac Michigan is really Detroit), and it still doesn’t seem to matter.

This year on opening day, the Orioles started the following 8 position players:

First – Raffy Palmeiro

Second – Brian Roberts

SS – Miguel Tejada

Third – Melvin Mora

Left – Larry Bigbie

Center – Luis Matos

Right – Sammy Sosa

Catcher – Javy Lopez

Next year there is a real possibility that the only one in the opening day starting lineup will be Mora.  Palmeiro, Sosa, and Bigbie are gone.  Javy has been replaced at catcher.  Matos is doubtful.  Roberts may not be back from his injury.  Tejada may be traded.

Is Melvin Mora, along with 7 other guys, the Baltimore Orioles?

If Manny gets his way and Ortiz is the last man standing, are they still the Boston Red Sox?

Is there even such a “team” as the New York Yankees, or is it just a group of hired guns?  Is that even a fair question?  Are all teams now just a bunch of mercenaries?

I guess it’s all a very personal thing. For me, as long as there are 25 guys in Orioles uniforms, they are “My Team”.  Your mileage may vary.

I have been asked by several people if I thought that Toronto paid too much for B.J. Ryan ($47 Million for 5 years).  It is an interesting question because it is actually several questions rolled into one.

“Does B.J Ryan deserve $47 Million for 5 years?” Of course he does.   This reminds me of an old Redd Foxx joke, but because it is a Redd Foxx joke I won’t tell it here.  Let me put it this way.  If there are two lines of people, one line is to continue doing the job you are doing for the same pay, and the other line is to continue doing what you are doing for a different company for a $47 Million, 5 year contract, which line are you going to be in?  I don’t know about you, but I’m going to be in that LONG line.

“Is B.J Ryan worth $47 Million for 5 years?”  Of course he is.  Baseball provides an interesting example of the concept of Supply and Demand with a Vertical Supply Curve.  The “Supply” of players is basically fixed.  No matter how large the “Demand” becomes, the “quality baseball player factory” can’t produce any more of them.  Any product is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

“Would you sign a pitcher to a 5 year deal?”  Of course I wouldn’t.  I also wouldn’t put all of my money on “00” on a Roulette wheel.  It might work out well, but the odds are against it.  If you get lucky, you might get 4 out of 5 good years out of a pitcher.  There are 633 pitchers listed on the MLB website.  I’m too lazy to do the actual research, but I think it’s a pretty safe bet that most of them will not be playing in 5 years and out of those that are, most of them will miss at least one year worth of games due to some sort of injury.  I know that MLB teams can get insurance to cover this type of situation, but it can’t be cheap, and only adds to the Total Cost of Ownership, which means it costs the team much more for the player than the published amount of the salary.  Remember – I am a “player’s fan”.  I hope he has 50 saves a year for the next 5 years (but none against the Orioles).  I just don’t think it will happen.

“Would you pay a closer $47 Million?”  Of course I wouldn’t.  I think the role of a closer is overrated, but the explanation for that opinion is the subject for another post.

One aspect of the question assumes that I know something about Toronto.  I don’t.  However, I don’t think they were just a $47 Million closing pitcher (with about 40 career saves and a 1-4 record last year) away from winning the AL East.  I don’t consider it to be a “major market”, but I have to assume that they have plenty of money or else they wouldn’t have made this deal.

“Did Toronto pay too much for B.J Ryan?”  Absolutely.

I really don’t think this will happen, but is interesting to look at.

Hitting

• It’s the bottom of the ninth in the deciding game of the World Series.  Two on, 2 out.  Which one do you want at the plate?

• A hint – in post season play Tejada is 5 for 44.  Manny is 37 for 119.  A .113 Average vs. a .311 Average.

• I don’t know how the season ended, but for a period of time, Tejada lead the AL in hitting into double plays.

Fielding

• In the 2002:Division Series, errors by Miguel Tejada and Scott Hatteberg led to five unearned runs in one inning in Game 4 against Minnesota.

• Although Manny is not exactly Gold Glove material, if you watch a lot of games, you will notice that (unless it is the All Star game), Tejada does not bend over (or dive) for ground balls hit to his glove side.  If the ball bounces up, he will make the play.  If it stays on the ground, it is a “base hit”.

Base Running

• Neither one hustles to first on ground balls, but in what may have been one of the most famous base running blunders of all time, in 2003: Tejada abandoned all efforts to score and allowed himself to be tagged out in Game 3 against Boston.

If a player complains that he wants to be on a team that wins, it seems to me he should contribute to the winning.

One of the reasons I normally wait before commenting on a story in the media, is that they never feel obligated to actually quote someone, even if they put the words between quotation marks.  I heard someone (I forget who) on the radio the other day say that they had been interviewed 100 times, but never been quoted correctly.  I have seen live interviews, and the next day when I read it in print, the quotations weren’t really quotations.

This is why I won’t comment directly today on the story about Miguel Tejada asking to be traded from the Orioles.  One of the things that makes it a bit interesting is the fact that both The Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun ran articles about the situation.  Both contained comment from Melvin Mora.

According to the Post, Mora said – "Oh my goodness," Orioles third baseman Melvin Mora, vacationing in Puerto Rico, said. "That’s a big thing. It’s a big loss for the team if Tejada leaves. I never would have expected him to make such comments."

According to the Sun, Mora said – "I think he is right," said Mora, speaking from Puerto Rico, where he is on vacation with his family. He said he spoke to Tejada three days ago, but Tejada’s apparent wishes to be traded never came up. "He says what he feels and that’s pretty much what has happened. You let people go like nothing and you do nothing to help this club. And he wants to go someplace to compete. I don’t blame him. We want [the front office] to do something."

I guess it’s possible that he said both things, but it looks strange to me.

Even the quotation from Tejada seems a bit suspect.  I have heard him speak on numerous occasions.  “A change of scenery” just doesn’t sound like something he would say.  I also think there is at least some possibility that the conversation was actually in Spanish, and maybe something was a bit “modified” in the translation.

I don’t know who said what, but for the purposes of this post, it really doesn’t matter.

This is not directed at anyone specific, but – If any player doesn’t want to be here, let him go!!!!

If the Orioles clubhouse is full of unhappy players, as far as I’m concerned, the Orioles could go 20 miles down the road and bring up 25 guys from the Bowie Baysox (their AA club), and put them in Camden Yards.  I don’t care if they go 0-162.  I went to several of their games this year, and every one of them played like Eric Byrnes – they play like their hair is on fire. EVERYBODY runs out ground balls.  EVERYBODY dives to make catches.  They are fun to watch.  I’m sure they would all be happy to be playing big league baseball for the Baltimore Orioles, even if they aren’t making millions of dollars a year.

The Oriole’s Future

Last year on Opening Day, I made a few predictions.   Most were terribly wrong.  I told our local talk radio show (in person – I rarely use a phone) that the Orioles would win 95 games, have three 15 game winners, and that would be enough to win the AL East.  OK – 95 wins was enough to win the AL East.  It just wasn’t the Orioles.  I didn’t think either the Yankees or the Red Sox were going to be strong enough to win 100 games.  The Os had one 15 game winner.  I went to SpringTraining and saw Cabrera and Bedard.  I thought they were locks to win at least 15.  As it worked out, Bedard was injured, Cabrera was inconsistent, and it was Bruce Chen who should have been a 15 game winner if the Os hadn’t forgotten how to hit whenever he pitched.  I also told my wife that this was Larry Bigbie’s last shot to start in the O’s outfield.  Sadly, I was right on that one.

Managing

• Sam Perlozzo watched the World Series and learned from the Astros that smallball is a loosing strategy.  He will only use the sacrifice bunt in the right circumstances – when one run is guaranteed to win the game or in Inter-league games when the pitcher is up.  He will make better use of both the position players and the bullpen.

• The front office will be cautious concerning off season moves.  In spite of a need, they will not pay a lot, or give long term contracts, to pitchers.  I’m sure they read my earlier post about the top 5 free agent pitchers last year, and have learned from it.  They will look for short term (with options) relationships to be sure they don’t freeze out the talent they have in the farm system.

Pitching

• Leo Mazzonne will teach the starters to pitch complete games, placing less reliance on the bullpen.  This will actually make the bullpen improve.

• He will also make a minor change that will turn Jorge Julio into Mariano Rivera (unless Julio is traded.)

• The Os will pick up Trevor Hoffman and Barry Zito to fill in until the crop of home grown young arms is ready.

• Daniel Cabrera will become a dominating starter.

• Erik Bedard will regain his form of early 2005 and finish the year with 20 wins and a 2.50 ERA and be a Cy Young contender.

• Rodrigo Lopez will win over 15 games.

• Steve Kline’s finger will be completely healed and he will return to the reliever he was in St. Louis.

• Chris Ray will get even better and be ready to close in 2007.

• John Maine, Adam Lowen, and Hayden Penn will be brought up to the Big Leagues and put in the bullpen where they can learn to be Major League pitchers.

Infield

• Melvin Mora will time warp back to 2004 and once again hit .340.

• Miguel Tejada will hit over .300, get 150 RBIs, and actually bend over to catch ground balls on his glove side.

• Brian Roberts will come back from his injury and prove he was the real thing in early 2005.

• At catcher, first base, and DH, Javy Lopez will rotate among those positions as the O’s pick up either Bengie Molina or Ramon Hernandez, and Nomar Garciaparra.

Outfield

• Jay Gibbons will hit 40 Home Runs.

• The rest of the outfield remains a mystery.  I don’t think you will see Byrnes and Matos starting on Opening Day.  I also don’t see much of a future for David Newhan or B.J Surhoff.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nick Markakis brought up from Bowie.

Injuries

• No Oriole’s player will break a finger in 2006.

Bottom Line

The Orioles will win 95 games in 2006, and that will be enough to win the A.L East.  How’s that for consistency?

Much of this is subject to change in the next month or so, but I wanted to get this out before the Winter Meetings.

I am a “player’s fan.”  I don’t just mean Oriole’s players, but all players in all sports on all teams, and although I love to watch excellence, I also appreciate great performances and great efforts.

Even if my favorite wins, I am always a bit sad when I see losing players hanging their heads in disappointment.

I consider myself fortunate to have been able to see Tiger Woods and Annika Sorenstam play golf, Michael Jordan play basketball, Muhammed Ali box, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas play football, Gordie Howe play hockey, and Lance Armstrong ride a bicycle.  I personally consider them among the greatest players in each of their respective sports.

I have watched baseball for a long time.  I’ve seen some of the greats – Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays and Al Kaline and Brooks and Frank Robinson and Cal Ripken and Reggie Jackson and Ted Williams and Bob Gibson and Barry Bonds and a hundred others.  I don’t think any of them are heroes or role models.  They are guys who get paid to do a job, and it’s fun to watch them do that job.

I have also seen hundreds of the “not so greats”.  This group covers a wide range.  I don’t believe that here is any such thing as a “bad” Major League baseball player.  They are all professional athletes.  The backup catcher in AAA baseball is still a good baseball player or else he wouldn’t be there.  There is just too much competition.  But some are better than others.  Some have more talent.  Some try harder.  Some may become one of the “greats”, but most won’t.  It doesn’t really matter to me.  I’m still a fan.

Maybe that’s why, in spite of 8 straight losing seasons, I am still an Orioles fan.

In May, I sent the following to our local sports talk radio show after an Oriole’s relief pitcher was removed from the game after a less than stellar performance:

“At Sunday’s Orioles game, Steve Reed’s departure was greeted with a loud chorus of "boos" from the assembled at Camden Yards. However, if you paid attention to the volume of the boos, it increased significantly when Lee Mazzilli finally decided to come onto the field. At least in the area where I sit, the baseball fans understand that the ballplayers are human beings, and therefore are not perfect. They, as well as we, are all going to have bad days. Steve gave it his best, but on that day it just wasn’t good enough.  Some days it will be. The frustration was with management for allowing him to stay in when it was obvious to the most casual observer that Detroit was pounding him. Two balls had already been hit off of the scoreboard.

I have taught my children never to boo your own team. If nothing else, it certainly won’t motivate them to do better the next time. I assume they give it all they have, and they deserve your respect for their efforts. It is up to team management however, to have the best possible team on the field. If that team loses – so be it, but don’t leave in a poor guy who isn’t getting the job done.

If you happen to see Steve, please let him know that most of the boos weren’t meant for him.”

I think that sort of sums up my feelings.